The first half of 2026 has gone by quickly, making it a good time to take a look at what has happened across different markets. Which markets have rewarded investors the most, and where has sentiment been the weakest?

In the US, the S&P 500 index continues to be driven higher by the shares of large technology companies, as investors keep betting on the huge potential of artificial intelligence and its future growth.

One particularly interesting area, however, has been small-cap stocks. Expectations for profit growth have improved, likely due to hopes of lower interest rates, and investors have generally become more optimistic about these companies.

South Korea has also been a major beneficiary of the AI boom, mainly thanks to its strong semiconductor industry. However, the market also carries the potential for significant volatility, as two companies — Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix — represent around half of the index’s total market capitalization. As long as the positive outlook around AI remains intact, share prices may continue to benefit from these expectations. But once sentiment changes (and at some point it probably will, perhaps sooner than many expect), a similarly strong downturn could follow — and it is hard to say how far it could go.

In Europe, the rise has been more moderate. One possible reason is that technology companies do not have such a dominant weight in European indexes. But Spain performed outstandingly, primarily due to its undervaluation, financial and energy sectors. Europe has generally been undervalued in recent years, which has also created opportunities for investors to achieve attractive returns.

Japan’s performance has been influenced by several different factors. Technological development has certainly played a role in pushing valuations higher, but the return of inflation and rising interest rates have also had an important impact (although rates are still relatively low — the current BOJ rate is 1%). These changes have triggered large movements of capital, with money flowing into investments and shaping market performance. The financial sector is a good example of this, delivering very strong returns in recent years and continuing to perform well this year too.